By the Numbers

Let’s talk numbers here for a minute.

Courtesy of nhl.com

The Burgundy Boys are 8-4 when taking more penalties than the other team. We’re 4-2 when taking less penalties, so despite the thought that penalties are killing us (see Oilers spanking), we have the same win percentage either way. The surprising fact is that we’re a despicable 0-2 with the same amount of box time as our opponent. Special teams is obviously important.

And now that we’ve lost some at home, let me remind you that the Avs are still undefeated, 6-0, when winning the first period. That early lead is huge. That is half of our wins. If we can score first and score often we can win games. Better yet, the Avalanche are 8-2 when leading after the second period. That number is a bit misleading as the team is 3-5 when losing after one period.

But we do score 1.15 goals on average in the second period (.80 in #1, .95 in #3) vs allowing .70 goals on average (.90 in #1, .90 in #3). This means, on average, the Avs are outscored in the first, do all of the heavy lifting in the second, and managed to gently sway the game their way in the third. But this isn’t good enough. You can’t win one period and two on some nights and expect to keep winning. The numbers are stacked against you. Some nights that is all it takes, but more often than not, it takes three periods of solid, dominant hockey to win a game.

Again, half of the Boys’ wins have come from leading over all three periods. Now they may not have won all of those in shots, or effort, but they have in points and that is what matters. Wojtek Wolski is the leading scorer on the team with 9 goals and 7 assists. This is great but it needs to come more. For all of the ribbing given to Marek Svatos, the guy is the fourth lead on the team with 5 goals and 2 assists. Darcy Tucker has as many goals as Paul Stastny and has played 8 less games after suffering a concussion.

Conversely, Paul Stastny leads the team in points at 18, with 4 goals and 14 assists. He’s making plays, as his playmaker role determines, but I expect better from the top center. Rookie Ryan O’Reilly has 15 points with 4 goals and 11 assists and he’s making significantly less money and I’d argue that he works much harder, night to night than Stastny does. Matt Duchene has a meager 2 goals and 5 assists, attributing his slow start to seasonal patterns he’s noticed before.

We’re 25% done with the season and the Avalanche have had a tremendous start, shocking analysts and fans alike with their play. But everyone is expecting the return to form from last year, and with a 2-4-1 record for our last seven games, it is starting to look like that will happen. It wont, if the team fixes the leaks and gets back to the basics of what was winning them games before. Now is the time to turn it back on. There can be no let up for the rest of the season. Tonight, against Calgary, there is a battle for first place in the Northwest division. This game is the keystone for the rest of the season before the Olympics. Start fresh, work hard, finish your checks, finish your shots, puck the biscuit in the basket and let’s all hoist that cup.

What do you think about the Avs stats? Do you keep track of these things? Do you even like numbers?

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4. Avs v. Ducks Pregame
5. Hawks Fall to Avs in Shootout